Tracking the Tropics: 3 invests being watched for tropical development, one could impact United States

National News

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — After a brief hiatus of tropical activity, the Atlantic Basin is beginning to heat back up with three areas being monitored for possible development. Fred, Grace and Henri have all dissipated – and the next storm name on the list is Ida.

Here are the areas being monitored:

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An area of low pressure currently 800 miles southeast of Bermuda is producing showers and thunderstorms. The two-day chance for development is low at 30% but increases to 80% for the next fives days.

Strong upper level winds will limit development over the next couple of days but the winds are forecast to lessen, leading to a more favorable environment for strengthening. A tropical depression could form late in the week or over the weekend as the system slowly moves northeast, away from Bermuda.

This is not likely to effect the United States and long range forecast models keep it well east of Bermuda.

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A tropical wave moving west-northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour through the south-central Atlantic has a low chance of developing. It is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and has a 20% chance of developing over the next two days and 30% chance over the next five days.

Forecast models turn this wave north before reaching the Caribbean Islands and, even if it develops, it would likely remain a storm at sea with no threat to the United States. Upper levels winds will pick up by this weekend and limit any further development.

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A tropical wave located near Colombia and the south-central Caribbean Sea has a higher chance of developing and could impact Mexico before moving in to the Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical depression will likely form late this week as it moves toward the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula. It could move over or near the peninsula on Saturday before moving into the Gulf of Mexico Sunday where environmental conditions are favorable for development.

The National Hurricane Center is giving it an 80% chance of developing over the next five days.

Longer-range models bring a tropical system toward the western Gulf Coast states by early next week, Monday or Tuesday. The forecast models vary on the strength of the storm.

While it is too early to talk about specific locations that could see impacts, people in the western Gulf should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

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